中国银行行业调研总结：息差及资产质量可控，零售和对公增长出现转换

Investment Rating - The report provides a neutral investment rating for the Chinese banking industry, indicating that the total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to be in line with the relevant market benchmark [12]. Core Insights - The banks have successfully reduced deposit costs, which has partially offset the decline in asset yields. This has been achieved through multiple rounds of deposit interest rate cuts since 2022, with further declines expected quarterly [2][5]. - There has been a significant reduction in existing mortgage rates, which has decreased early repayment behaviors and alleviated pressure on net interest income. A recovery in new mortgage applications was observed in Q3, with expectations for this trend to continue into Q4 [3][5]. - Corporate loans have continued to drive growth in the first three quarters, but some banks are beginning to see an increase in contributions from retail loans. Regulatory guidance on loan issuance remains a consideration [4][5]. - The growth rate in deposits and loans for the first three quarters was lower than the same period last year, with some banks increasing their market share in deposits while needing to balance liquidity management and net interest margin profitability [4][5]. - Banks generally do not anticipate significant issues with corporate asset quality in 2024, although there are concerns regarding personal business loans in retail lending. A higher write-off ratio than last year is expected [4][5]. Summary by Sections Liability Costs - Banks have managed to lower deposit costs, which has helped mitigate the downward trend in asset yields. The reduction in deposit interest rates and the introduction of new products have contributed to this [2][5]. Mortgage Rates - The decrease in mortgage rates has led to a reduction in early repayment behaviors, with a notable recovery in new mortgage applications in Q3, expected to continue into Q4 [3][5]. Asset Allocation - Corporate loans have driven growth, but there is a trend towards increased retail loan contributions. Some banks are balancing between corporate working capital loans and discounted bills to improve asset-side yields [4][5]. Growth in Deposits and Loans - The growth rate in deposits and loans has been lower than the previous year, with banks needing to manage liquidity and profitability effectively [4][5]. Asset Quality - Banks expect manageable corporate asset quality issues in 2024, with concerns focused on personal business loans. A higher write-off ratio is anticipated compared to last year [4][5].