LI AUTO(HK:02015) Guolian Securities·2024-11-04 12:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a delivery of 153,000 vehicles in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 45.4%. The revenue reached 42.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, with a net profit of 2.82 billion yuan and a GAAP net profit of 3.85 billion yuan. The company expects revenue for 2024-2026 to be 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3% respectively [2][7][8]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a vehicle delivery of 153,000 units, leading to a sales revenue of 41.32 billion yuan, which is a 22.9% increase year-on-year. The overall revenue for the quarter was 42.87 billion yuan, marking a 23.6% increase year-on-year. The company anticipates Q4 deliveries to be between 160,000 and 170,000 units, with expected revenue of 43.2 to 45.9 billion yuan [7][8]. - The automotive sales gross margin for Q3 2024 was 20.9%, with an overall gross margin of 21.5%, primarily driven by the scale effect of the Li L6 model. R&D and SG&A expenses were 2.59 billion and 3.36 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease in expense ratios [7][8]. Future Projections - The company forecasts its revenue for 2024-2026 to be 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3%. The net profit is projected to be 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -27.1%, 67.0%, and 66.6% respectively. The EPS is expected to be 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 yuan per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6% [2][8]. Ecosystem Development - The company is accelerating its ecosystem development, with 479 retail centers and 436 after-sales service centers established across 221 cities as of September 30, 2024. Additionally, it has deployed 894 charging stations and 4,286 charging piles nationwide [7]. Product and Technology Advancements - The company is enhancing its product capabilities and accelerating its smart electric strategy, with the OTA 6.4 version released in October, optimizing user experience through improved smart driving solutions [7].