2024年11月资产配置报告：变局节点将至，静待大选与政策定音

Macro Strategy Overview - The report highlights the strong performance of the US economy, with a slight decline in GDP growth in Q3 but sustained consumer momentum. The market anticipates a near 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with an 82.55% chance of another cut in December, indicating a total potential reduction of 50 basis points for the year [3][22]. - The uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election is emphasized, with different outcomes potentially leading to varied impacts on asset prices. The report notes that if Trump is elected, it could negatively affect the A-share export trade chain, while Harris's election may lead to a recovery in export expectations [4][24]. Domestic Economic Environment - The report indicates that since the end of September, there have been clear signals of policy expansion, with expectations of increased debt and deficit to support areas like debt reduction, real estate rescue, and consumption stimulation. This has positively impacted market sentiment [7]. - Economic indicators show marginal improvement, with a Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.6%, driven by broad infrastructure and high appliance consumption. However, challenges such as low inflation, corporate profitability, and insufficient effective demand remain, necessitating further policies to boost employment and consumption [9]. A-share Investment Insights - The report outlines investment strategies based on the outcomes of the US election and domestic policy scenarios. If Trump wins and domestic demand policies exceed expectations, there could be structural opportunities in consumption and technology sectors. Conversely, if Harris wins, there may be a shift towards technology growth and small-cap opportunities [10]. - Regardless of the election outcome, sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and security are expected to have high certainty. Key industries to focus on include semiconductors, computers, communications, military, robotics, and high-end manufacturing [10]. Asset Allocation Outlook - The report provides a neutral outlook for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the short term, with a relatively optimistic medium-term view. US stocks and bonds are also viewed positively, while gold is expected to perform well due to geopolitical tensions [11]. - The report notes that the performance of A-shares has been mixed, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in October, driven by high market activity and policy expectations [14]. Industry Performance Review - The TMT sector showed strong performance in October, benefiting from positive quarterly results and the anticipation of policy support. In contrast, cyclical sectors performed relatively weakly [15]. - The report highlights that the market style has diverged, with small-cap growth stocks performing better, while large-cap stocks faced challenges [14]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the US election results and domestic policy developments, as these factors will significantly influence market dynamics and investment strategies moving forward [4][10][24].