策略周报：美国大选临近，全球市场波动上升

Group 1 - The report highlights increased global market volatility as the US election approaches, with fluctuations in the "Trump trade" and expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weaker non-farm employment data affected by hurricanes [1][4]. - Domestic PMI has returned to the growth line, with production indicators outperforming new orders, indicating that policy efforts are driving production recovery, while demand recovery still requires more policy implementation [1][4]. - The A-share market saw an increase in trading activity, with an average daily turnover of 20,885 billion yuan, up 1,787 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating that market activity remains at historical high levels [1][4][11]. Group 2 - The report notes a structural divergence in the A-share market, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 experiencing valuation declines, while smaller-cap indices like the CSI 1000 and ChiNext saw further valuation increases [6][7]. - The A-share risk premium has slightly decreased and is currently below one standard deviation, while the equity-bond yield ratio for the Shanghai dividend stocks is near negative one standard deviation [8][10]. - The industry rotation index indicates that the speed of industry rotation is at historical lows, with technology growth sectors performing relatively well, while cyclical sectors are weaker [11][12]. Group 3 - Key upcoming events include the US election results on November 6, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on November 8, and the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting from November 4-8, which may focus on debt relief and real estate support policies [12].