Guolian Securities·2024-11-04 14:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD (002594) is maintained at "Buy" [5] Core Insights - The launch of the DM5.0 model has significantly boosted both sales volume and pricing, leading to record profits in Q3 2024 [7] - BYD's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 502.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 25.24 billion yuan, up 18.1% [7] - In Q3 2024, BYD sold 1.129 million passenger vehicles, a 37.4% increase year-on-year, with a 14.9% quarter-on-quarter growth [7] - The company has seen a recovery in sales prices for new models compared to previous versions, contributing to an increase in per-vehicle revenue [2][7] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was 201.12 billion yuan, a 24.0% year-on-year increase, while net profit was 11.61 billion yuan, up 11.47% [7] - The gross margin improved to 21.9%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2 percentage points [7] - Operating cash flow for Q3 was 42.095 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 164.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 965.6% [7] Future Projections - Revenue projections for BYD are estimated at 813.06 billion yuan for 2024, 952.98 billion yuan for 2025, and 1,162.64 billion yuan for 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 17.2%, and 22.0% respectively [8] - Net profit forecasts are 39.72 billion yuan for 2024, 51.11 billion yuan for 2025, and 64.19 billion yuan for 2026, with growth rates of 32.2%, 28.7%, and 25.6% respectively [8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 13.65 yuan for 2024, 17.57 yuan for 2025, and 22.07 yuan for 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.8% over three years [8]