中国银河：每日晨报-20241105

Macro Insights - The report discusses the potential macroeconomic impacts following the US elections, highlighting two main paths: fundamental-based impacts from differing policies of the two parties and event-based market reactions during the election period [1][11] - It notes that market volatility is expected to increase significantly during the election period, with comparisons made to market movements before the 2016 and 2020 elections [1][11] ESG Sector - The report indicates that central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have shown improved fundamentals, with profit growth in Q3 2024 reversing a downward trend, outperforming the overall A-share market [1][13] - Despite negative revenue growth, profit increases are attributed to lower upstream raw material prices and cost-cutting measures by enterprises [1][13] - The performance of the real estate sector and related industries remains poor, with insufficient domestic demand leading to price declines and overall profit recovery being hindered [1][13] Fixed Income Market - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy developments, with expectations of a government bond issuance of around 2 trillion yuan, which is considered a neutral assumption with limited impact on the bond market [2][20] - It suggests that short-term bonds may offer better value, with a high likelihood of a second reserve requirement ratio cut accompanying fiscal measures [2][20] - The report anticipates that long-term bonds may experience pressure due to potential supply shocks from fiscal policy implementation [2][20] Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector is noted to be at a historically low valuation, with specific recommendations for stocks in pig farming, pet products, and poultry farming [24][25] - The report highlights fluctuations in pig prices and the impact of winter diseases on the sector, suggesting a focus on companies like Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and others [24][25] - It also discusses the performance of feed prices and the potential for recovery in the poultry sector, particularly for yellow feathered chickens [24][25] Chemical Industry - The report identifies a divergence in price performance within the chemical sector, with expectations for valuation recovery driven by recent policy stimuli [3][31] - It highlights the impact of oil price fluctuations and OPEC+ production policies on the chemical industry, suggesting a cautious outlook on supply and demand dynamics [27][31] - The report recommends focusing on core assets with resilient earnings and high-quality new material stocks for potential investment opportunities [3][31]