社会服务11月投资前瞻：Q3行业环比下行，关注政策催化落地

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on sectors such as human resources, education, OTA, and local life services, indicating a positive outlook for Q4 due to potential policy changes and low base effects from the previous year [1][12]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the social service sector in Q3 2024 was under pressure, with significant declines in revenue for sectors like hotels and duty-free, while human resources and education showed resilience [1][11]. - Key revenue growth rates for Q3 included human resources (+18%), exhibitions (-1%), education (-4%), hotels (-7%), scenic spots (-8%), and duty-free (-22%) [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring significant policy developments in November that could impact the sector positively [1][12]. Sector Tracking and Insights Education - The education sector experienced a mixed performance, with K12 training leaders showing strong revenue growth, but profit margins were affected by rapid store expansions and declining consumer spending [2][13]. - Recommended companies include Xueda Education, Doushen Education, and Tianli International Holdings, with a focus on monitoring profit recovery in the coming year [2][13]. Tourism - The tourism sector faced challenges due to high base effects and adverse weather conditions, but national scenic companies still achieved growth [2][14]. - Recommendations include Ctrip Group, Tongcheng Travel, and SanTe Cableway, with an expectation for outbound tourism to outperform domestic travel in Q4 [2][14]. Hotel Services - The hotel sector continues to struggle with supply-demand imbalances, with key metrics like occupancy and average daily rate (ADR) showing declines [3][14]. - The report suggests focusing on O2O automotive after-sales service leaders like Tuhu-W while awaiting macroeconomic improvements for hotels and restaurants [3][14]. Industry Data - In September 2024, China's total retail sales reached 41,112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2% [17]. - The duty-free sector saw a total of 758 million yuan in sales during the National Day holiday, although per capita spending was below last year's levels [19]. - Hotel occupancy rates and ADR showed fluctuations post-holiday, indicating a gradual recovery in the latter half of October [20][22]. Industry News - The report highlights various developments in the duty-free and hotel sectors, including promotional activities in Haikou and partnerships between major hotel groups [37][41]. - The establishment of a cross-border tourism cooperation zone between China and Vietnam is noted as a significant development in the tourism sector [41].