HTI中国消费行业11月投资报告：软饮料之后关注乳业、白酒

Investment Rating - The report rates several companies in the essential consumer sector as "Outperform," including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Yili [1][1][1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance across eight tracked industries in October, with three showing accelerated growth, four experiencing a decline, and one remaining flat. The industries with single-digit growth include frozen foods, soft drinks, dining, and condiments, while lower-end and above white spirits, dairy products, beer, and high-end white spirits are in negative growth [2][2][2]. - The report emphasizes the need for a longer time and more transmission links for essential consumer goods to benefit from recent economic stimulus policies introduced by the central government [2][2]. - The report suggests a shift in focus towards the dairy and white wine sectors after the soft drink industry, which has already shown significant absolute returns [1][1][1]. Revenue Forecasts - The report provides revenue forecasts for various sectors, indicating that the domestic white wine industry for October is projected to generate 303 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.9%. Cumulative revenue from January to October is 3,435 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year growth [3][3]. - The domestic beer industry is expected to generate 105 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. Cumulative revenue for the first ten months is 1,542 billion yuan, down 3.6% year-on-year [5][5]. - The condiment industry is forecasted to generate 372 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. Cumulative revenue from January to October is 3,663 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.6% year-on-year growth [7][7]. - The dairy industry is projected to generate 381 billion yuan in October, down 6.2% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for the first ten months at 3,955 billion yuan, a decline of 7.6% year-on-year [8][8]. - The frozen food industry is expected to generate 78 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7%. Cumulative revenue from January to October is 888 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.1% year-on-year growth [10][10]. - The soft drink industry is projected to generate 455 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. Cumulative revenue for the first ten months is 5,941 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.4% year-on-year growth [11][11]. Price Tracking - The report notes that the average discount rates for condiment products have slightly increased from the end of September, indicating a shift in pricing strategies [23][23]. - The report tracks wholesale prices for major white wine brands, showing fluctuations in pricing, with Guizhou Moutai's prices decreasing significantly compared to last year [15][15][17].