彭博：中国白酒月度业绩

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for China's baijiu stocks, with an average share price decline of 10% in October due to a weaker sales outlook and sluggish wholesale prices [2][3]. Core Insights - The sales outlook for major baijiu brands remains bleak, contributing to a significant decline in share prices, with some stocks dropping as much as 19% [2][3]. - Wholesale prices for key brands, including Kweichow Moutai's Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye's Puwu, have reached record lows, indicating pressure on pricing due to subdued market sentiment and overcapacity [2][3]. - Consensus earnings downgrades for most distillers ranged from 1-4% in October, reflecting the challenging market conditions [4]. Summary by Sections Share Price Performance - Selected China baijiu stocks experienced an average decline of 10% in October, with Jiangsu Yanghe's share prices falling the most at 19% due to weak third-quarter results, where EPS declined by 73% year over year [3][4]. Earnings Consensus - The report notes that consensus earnings downgrades for the month of October ranged from 1-4% for most distillers, indicating a downward revision in earnings expectations [4]. Price Trends - The average price for major baijiu brands has fallen by 11% year-to-date, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [4]. - Specifically, the wholesale price of Feitian Moutai 2023 edition has dropped to a record low of 2,360 Yuan [5].