彭博：中国制造2025：诸多进步，诸多挑战

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but it highlights significant progress and challenges across various sectors under the "Made in China 2025" initiative [1][2] Core View - China is making substantial progress in high-value manufacturing and technological advancement, despite geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions from the US [1] - The "Made in China 2025" policy is driving advancements in multiple sectors, positioning China as a global leader in manufacturing and exports [1][2] - China is a global leader in five key technologies and is catching up in seven others, with significant investments in R&D and innovation [2][6] Key Topics Summary Deep Dive: Made in China 2025 - China leads the world in five technologies and is catching up in seven others, with significant progress in AI, semiconductors, and electric vehicles [2][6] - The country's R&D expenditure has nearly doubled from 2015-2022, and it has surpassed the US in internationally recognized patents since 2019 [5][6] Autos: EVs Drive Ahead - China's new-energy vehicle (NEV) adoption rate is setting the global pace, with NEVs expected to contribute 75-80% of new car sales by 2030 [8][10] - BYD has overtaken Tesla as China's largest NEV exporter, with NEV exports surging to 1.2 million units in 2023 from 70,000 in 2020 [11][16] AI Ambitions Bearing Fruit - China is rapidly advancing in AI, with its software firms embracing generative AI and narrowing the development gap with the US [17][18][19] - The country has over seven million software developers, giving it a numerical advantage over the US in AI development [19] Semiconductor Beat But Miss - China is unlikely to meet its 2030 target of capturing 46% of the global semiconductor market, with its share falling to 27% in 2024 [24][25] - Despite missing market share targets, China's semiconductor output is growing strongly, with a projected 17% growth in 2024 [26] LNG Tankers Smooth Sailing - China is increasing its market share in LNG tanker shipbuilding, with a 27% global market share in 2024, up from 6% in early 2022 [28][29] - State-owned shipyards are spearheading China's drive toward longer-term LNG-tanker goals under the MIC25 plan [30] Manufacturing Robotic Progress - China's robot usage has exceeded MIC25 targets, with 290,000 new installations of industrial robots in 2022 [35] - Chinese robot makers are gaining market share, particularly in general-use and smaller robots, though they still rely on imported parts [33][35] Rail Targets Off Track - China has built the world's largest high-speed railway network but is unlikely to hit its export goals due to US sanctions and intense competition [37][38] - CRRC's overseas sales stood at 22 billion yuan ($3.2 billion) in 2020-23, far short of the MIC25 export goal of 30% of industry sales by 2020 [40] Tractors Harvest Some Goals - China's agricultural equipment market is expanding, with domestic firms dominating sales, though foreign technology reliance may persist into 2030 [42][43] - Leading local equipment makers like Weichai and YTO Group are gaining market share, particularly in large-sized tractors [46] Aerospace Still on Runway - China is making progress in aerospace, with the Comac C919 narrowbody in service, but it will miss the 2025 target for developing a widebody aircraft [48] - The country has met goals in drone technology and space access, with significant achievements in interplanetary probes and orbital launches [51] Solar's Lead Set to Brighten - China's solar industry has surpassed most MIC25 targets, with solar module prices falling over 80% since 2015 and achieving 25% silicon solar cell efficiency [54] - The country hit its 2030 renewable energy milestone six years early, with 1,200 gigawatts of combined solar and wind power capacity installed by July 2024 [55] Drug Success, Global Scrutiny - China has exceeded its MIC25 drug development goals, with over 100 new drugs approved domestically, but faces increasing global scrutiny of clinical trial data [56][57] - Chinese biotech companies have won overseas approval for over nine innovative drugs since 2015, but regulatory rejections may hinder further globalization [59] Material Output, Prices Tumble - China dominates global graphene production and patents but will miss its 2025 industry size target due to price competition and intense market pressure [64][66] - Graphene has applications in batteries, chips, and solar energy, but price drops in the lithium-ion battery market are hindering industry growth [67]