海外大选观察系列：美国大选进入白热化阶段，如何看摇摆州选情

Group 1: Election Overview - As of November 3, 2024, Trump's national average support rate is 48.5%, leading Harris by 0.1 percentage points[1] - In 7 key swing states, Trump leads in 5 states, with an average support rate of 48.5%, compared to Harris's 47.7%[1] - The swing states include Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, which are critical for electoral votes[1] Group 2: Swing State Dynamics - Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes and is considered a bellwether state, with 10 of the last 12 presidential winners having won this state[1] - Michigan, with 15 electoral votes, has shifted from a Democratic stronghold to a competitive battleground, with Trump winning by a narrow margin in 2016[1] - Wisconsin, holding 10 electoral votes, has seen very close races, with four of the last six elections decided by less than 1 percentage point[1] Group 3: Voter Demographics and Issues - In Pennsylvania, the non-Hispanic white population is 74.5%, while the Black population is 12.2%, indicating a shift in voter demographics that may favor Democrats[1] - Michigan's economy is heavily reliant on the automotive industry, with 12.8% of the workforce being union members, which influences voter preferences[1] - Wisconsin voters prioritize economic issues (42.6%), with Trump showing stronger support on economic management compared to Harris[1] Group 4: Electoral Strategies - Trump's path to victory may involve winning Georgia (16 electoral votes) and Arizona (11 electoral votes), along with Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes)[1] - Harris's potential winning strategy includes securing all three Rust Belt states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes[1] - The "winner-takes-all" system in most states means that even a narrow victory in a state grants all its electoral votes, making swing states critical targets for both candidates[1]