交通运输2024年三季报业绩综述：板块业绩分化，把握向上趋势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation sector, consistent with previous recommendations [3]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from stabilizing demand and improving oil exchange rates, leading to a gradual recovery in performance. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines, Hainan Airlines, and Air China [2][4]. - The logistics industry shows promising recovery in profitability, particularly in the express delivery segment and the cross-border logistics sector. Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, Eastern Airlines Logistics, and China Foreign Trade [2][4]. - The infrastructure sector is highlighted for its low valuation and high dividend yield, with recommendations for Ninghu Expressway, Shandong Expressway, Guangdong Expressway A, Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and China Merchants Port [2][4]. Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The aviation sector has shown robust performance during the peak season, with passenger volume increasing by 20% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024. International flights have recovered to 85% of 2019 levels, improving supply structure and capacity utilization [4][9]. - The average domestic aviation kerosene price in Q3 2024 was 6,287 RMB/ton, down 3.6% year-on-year, easing cost pressures for airlines [9][10]. - Major airlines like Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines reported significant revenue growth, with Air China achieving a 21.5% increase in revenue [21][22]. Logistics Sector - The logistics sector is experiencing a recovery, with national freight turnover increasing by 1.8% year-on-year, and the total social logistics cost showing a slight decrease [29]. - The logistics prosperity index (LPI) stood at 52.4% in September 2024, indicating continued growth above the threshold [29]. Shipping Sector - The shipping industry is facing pressure in oil transportation during the off-season, while container shipping performance remains strong. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) have shown significant year-on-year increases [4][29]. - Major shipping companies reported varying performance, with some achieving substantial revenue growth despite the challenges in oil transportation [4]. Infrastructure Sector - The highway sector showed improved performance in Q3 2024, with net profits of 7.924 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%, but an improvement from Q2 [4]. - The railway sector faced challenges, with net profits declining by 14.22% year-on-year, while port throughput growth has slowed [4].