Deye(605117) 太平洋·2024-11-06 10:27Investment Rating - Buy/Maintain rating for Deye Co Ltd (605117) with a target price of 94.56 [1] Core Views - Deye Co Ltd's 2024 Q3 report shows significant improvement in profitability, driven by rapid growth in battery packs and commercial energy storage [1] - Revenue for Q1-3 2024 reached 8.02 billion yuan, a 26.7% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.24 billion yuan, up 42.8% year-on-year [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 3.27 billion yuan, a 128.2% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 billion yuan, up 229.5% year-on-year [1] - Gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1-3 2024 were 40.2% and 27.9%, respectively, with Q3 margins at 44.5% and 30.7%, up 8.4 and 9.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's operating cash flow for Q1-3 2024 was 2.68 billion yuan, indicating strong operational quality [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is forecasted to be 12.04 billion yuan, a 61% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.096 billion yuan, up 72.9% year-on-year [2] - Revenue for 2025 is expected to reach 15.26 billion yuan, a 26.7% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.805 billion yuan, up 22.9% year-on-year [2] - Revenue for 2026 is projected to be 19.26 billion yuan, a 26.3% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.633 billion yuan, up 21.8% year-on-year [2] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 20/16/13 times [2] Market and Product Development - Deye Co Ltd has expanded its market coverage in emerging markets such as Pakistan, Ukraine, Germany, India, Philippines, and Myanmar, despite a significant decline in the South African market [1] - The company has developed new products such as balcony micro energy storage inverters and commercial energy storage PCS-100KW series, leveraging its deep understanding of market demand [1] - The company's inverter products have driven sales of energy storage battery packs, contributing to rapid growth in this segment [1] Future Outlook - With the global interest rate cut cycle, the economic viability of residential and commercial solar storage products is expected to improve, supporting high growth in emerging markets and recovery in European and American markets [1] - The company is well-positioned as a leader in energy storage and inverter exports, with potential for further growth from new commercial energy storage and battery pack products [1]