医药行业2024三季报总结、月报24/10：行业经营持续承压，期待诊疗修复

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [4] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is undergoing continuous adjustments, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors. In the first three quarters of 2024, the industry's total revenue grew by 1.1%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The net profit attributable to shareholders and the net profit excluding non-recurring items both declined by 1.9% and 0.5%, respectively, compared to growth of 1.8% and 3.5% in the previous year. The slowdown in revenue growth and negative profit growth is primarily due to changes in the macroeconomic environment and the ongoing implementation of the DRG payment policy, although there has been improvement compared to the first half of the year [1][10][16] - The profitability and operational quality of the pharmaceutical industry are at historical low levels. The average gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 49.8%, and the average net margin was 15.3%, both down from the previous year. The return on equity (ROE) was 6.5%, reflecting significant operational pressure [1][16][20] Summary by Sections Monthly Policy and Industry Updates - The pharmaceutical industry continues to adjust, with clear differentiation among sub-sectors. The revenue growth rate has decreased significantly, and the industry is under pressure due to macroeconomic changes and policy implementations [1][10] - The profitability metrics indicate a decline, with gross and net margins at historical lows, and operational pressures reflected in extended accounts receivable and inventory turnover days [16][20] Industry Data Dynamics - The pharmaceutical industry has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a rolling P/E ratio of 31.99 times, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.56 times. The pharmaceutical sector's P/E premium is currently at 154.63%, below the historical average [2][21] - The heavy holdings in the pharmaceutical sector by public funds have decreased to a historical low of 9.78% as of Q3 2024, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [2][21][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical industry is entering an adjustment cycle, with potential for upward rebound in growth due to low base effects. The long-term outlook remains positive for innovative drugs, the innovation drug supply chain, and leading companies in specific segments [3][21]