机械设备行业：24年第三批动车组招标再超预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the mechanical equipment industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The recent tender announcement by the National Railway Group for the procurement of high-speed trains has exceeded expectations, with a total of 80.25 sets of trains being tendered [2]. - Cumulatively, the National Railway Group has tendered 246.5 sets of high-speed trains this year, marking a 65% increase compared to the total of 169.5 sets tendered in 2023 [2]. - The railway passenger flow is recovering, and with new operational mileage peaking and the update cycle approaching, the demand for high-speed trains is expected to grow significantly over the next 2-3 years [2]. - The report anticipates that the average annual demand for high-speed trains will exceed 200 sets, considering new, updated, and export needs [2]. Summary by Sections Tender and Procurement - The National Railway Group's third batch of tenders for high-speed trains includes 66 sets of standard trains, 10 sets of cold-resistant trains, and 4 sets of larger trains, totaling 80.25 sets [2]. - The total number of high-speed train tenders for 2024 is projected to reach 280.5 sets, significantly higher than the previous year [2]. Market Dynamics - In the first three quarters of the year, fixed asset investment in railways reached 561.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, with 1,820 kilometers of new railway lines opened [2]. - The report highlights a historical peak in passenger numbers, with 3.33 billion passengers transported, reflecting a 13.5% year-on-year increase [2]. Future Outlook - The report projects that from 2024 to 2027, the new operational mileage for high-speed rail will be 2,519 kilometers, 3,485 kilometers, 2,257 kilometers, and 4,355 kilometers respectively, with peaks in 2025 and 2027 [2]. - The demand for high-speed trains is expected to be driven by the need for replacements of older models and the anticipated increase in passenger traffic [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the railway industry is entering a new phase of growth driven by equipment updates, passenger recovery, and maintenance cycles, recommending companies like CRRC and Times Electric for investment [3].