宏观主题研究：特朗普2.0对中国经济和金融市场影响几何？

Trade and Tariff Impact - Trump's potential increase of tariffs on all Chinese exports to 60% could reduce China's GDP growth by 2.3 percentage points[6] - Average tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the U.S. have risen from 3.8% to over 19.3% since the trade war began[6] - If tariffs are raised to 60%, the negative impact on China's trade and GDP could be at least double that of the previous tariff increases[6] Technology Decoupling - The trend of technological decoupling between the U.S. and China is expected to continue under Trump's second term, with a focus on maintaining U.S. technological superiority[11] - Since 2018, U.S. restrictions on Chinese tech firms have intensified, particularly affecting companies like Huawei and ZTE[9] - China's R&D investment in high-tech sectors has significantly increased in response to U.S. sanctions, with a notable rise in the number of R&D institutions and patents filed[22] Financial Market Response - Trump's election may lead to increased volatility in Chinese financial markets, particularly if a new round of tariffs is implemented[1] - The Chinese government is likely to respond to potential tariffs by allowing the RMB to depreciate and enhancing macroeconomic policy adjustments[15] Diplomatic Relations - The impact of Trump's presidency on U.S.-China diplomatic relations remains uncertain, with potential for both deterioration and improvement depending on his approach[12] - Trump's previous administration's unilateral actions may lead to increased geopolitical tensions, particularly in regions like Taiwan and the South China Sea[12] Government Response Strategies - In anticipation of potential tariffs, the Chinese government may implement measures such as increasing policy support and enhancing trade partnerships with ASEAN and India[16] - Historical responses to trade tensions include significant reductions in reserve requirements and fiscal stimulus measures to stabilize economic growth[21]