券商9M24业绩综述：3Q24利润同比+41%/环比+14%，政策驱动下券商板块有望盈利&估值双击

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the brokerage sector, indicating a strong potential for both profitability and valuation improvement in the coming quarters [10]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector's performance in Q3 2024 showed significant improvement, with a year-on-year profit increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%. The overall net profit for the first nine months of 2024 decreased by 3% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe compared to the first half of the year [2][13]. - The investment business was the only segment to show positive year-on-year growth in the first nine months of 2024, contributing 45% to the main revenue [3][9]. - The report highlights a trend of improving profitability and valuation for the brokerage sector, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - In the first nine months of 2024, 43 listed brokerages achieved operating revenue of 371.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 103.4 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, but the decline rate significantly narrowed compared to the first half of the year [2][13]. - In Q3 2024, the same group of brokerages reported operating revenue of 136.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6%. The net profit for this quarter was 39.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14% [2][13]. 2. Business Breakdown - The investment business was the only segment with positive year-on-year growth, while other segments like brokerage and investment banking faced declines. The brokerage income decreased by 14% year-on-year, and investment banking income dropped by 38% [3][6]. - The report indicates that the brokerage sector's financial investment scale increased to 6.4 trillion yuan, with an annualized investment return rate of 3.90%, showing significant improvement compared to the first half of 2024 [9][22]. 3. Investment Analysis Opinion - The report recommends focusing on the brokerage sector, highlighting the potential for improved performance throughout 2024. Key stocks to watch include China Galaxy, Huatai Securities, Citic Securities, and others that may benefit from market reforms and M&A activities [10][18].