德邦股份：业绩阶段承压，静待需求复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.21%. However, the revenue for the third quarter was 9.850 billion yuan, showing a modest growth of 1.03% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 517 million yuan, up 9.71% year-on-year, but the third quarter net profit decreased by 19.40% to 184 million yuan [5] - The company is experiencing pressure on performance but is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.296 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.21%. The third quarter revenue was 9.850 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.03% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 517 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.71%. However, the third quarter net profit was 184 million yuan, down 19.40% year-on-year [5] Business Operations - The express freight volume increased by 9.4%, and express freight revenue grew by 3.2% in the third quarter [5] - The company has increased its investment in transportation resources, leading to improved service quality [5] - The operating costs for the third quarter were 9.119 billion yuan, up 1.81% year-on-year, with labor costs decreasing by 4.23% to 3.688 billion yuan [5] Management Efficiency - The company’s period expenses decreased by 14.88% year-on-year to 518 million yuan, with a period expense ratio down by approximately 1 percentage point [5] - Sales expenses increased by 47.34% year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced sales capability and an increase in the sales team [5] Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 39.953 billion yuan, 44.188 billion yuan, and 48.647 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.13%, 10.60%, and 10.09% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 858 million yuan, 1.041 billion yuan, and 1.287 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 15.11%, 21.22%, and 23.71% [5] - The company is expected to maintain its "Accumulate" rating due to favorable conditions in the express freight industry and ongoing improvements in management efficiency [5]