石油石化行业专题研究：特朗普胜选如何影响大化工？

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The report analyzes the potential impacts of Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election on the petrochemical industry, focusing on fossil energy and foreign trade policies [6][10] - Trump's energy policies may relax regulations on the oil industry and aim to boost U.S. oil and gas production, while tax policies may escalate trade measures against China, with limited impact on most Chinese chemical exports to the U.S. [6][10] - Chinese chemical companies may find opportunities for capacity expansion outside the U.S. [6] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Trump's Policy 2.0 - Trump's victory secures over 270 electoral votes, indicating a shift in energy policy favoring fossil fuels and potential tax cuts for domestic companies [10] - The report suggests that Trump's administration may reverse Biden's environmental regulations and support increased drilling on public lands [11][12] 2. Impact on Chemical Exports - The report identifies that only 4 out of 62 representative chemical products have over 10% export share to the U.S., indicating limited impact from potential trade tariffs [6][19] - The overall share of Chinese chemical exports to the U.S. has decreased, with a notable drop of 21.2% in 2023 compared to the previous year [20][21] 3. Potential Effects on Oil and Gas Prices - Trump's energy policies are expected to influence oil prices positively, with a focus on increasing domestic production [6][19] 4. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the attractiveness of the chemical sector due to its current low valuation, with several sub-sectors showing potential for valuation increases [6][30] - Companies with overseas production bases and low valuation core assets are recommended for investment, including SAILUN, Senqcia, and Hualu Chemical [6][31][32]