宏观专题报告：美国大选尘埃落定之后的政策路径及影响

Group 1: Economic Policies - Trump proposes a baseline tariff of 10% on all goods, with potential increases for countries manipulating currency or engaging in unfair trade practices, particularly targeting China with tariffs as high as 60%[12] - The tax reduction plan aims for an annual reduction of nearly $1 trillion, including making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent and reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%[15] - The fiscal impact of proposed tax cuts could lead to a total deficit increase of $6.8 trillion to $15.65 trillion from 2026 to 2035[19] Group 2: Energy and Climate Policies - The Republican platform calls for the expansion of fossil fuel production and the repeal of Biden's clean energy initiatives, including the Inflation Reduction Act[20] - Trump plans to terminate federal drilling permits and leases for oil and gas, aiming to boost domestic fossil fuel production[22] Group 3: Immigration and Border Security - Trump intends to implement the largest deportation plan in U.S. history, potentially reducing the population by approximately 4.4 million people[26] - The administration's immigration policies may lead to increased job vacancy rates, impacting sectors reliant on immigrant labor[27] Group 4: Technology and Manufacturing - The focus on supporting cryptocurrency and AI development is emphasized, with plans to make the U.S. a global hub for cryptocurrency[30] - Manufacturing policies will prioritize domestic production and supply chain security, with a commitment to bring critical industries back to the U.S.[31]