智联汽车系列深度之36：智能平权：AD/ADAS2025年趋势展望

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the smart car industry, particularly focusing on the AD/ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) sector, with expectations of significant penetration rate changes by 2025 [2][14] Core Views - Smart Equalization: BYD and other leading automakers are pushing AD/ADAS into the 100,000 RMB price range, making advanced driving features more accessible [2][14] - Domestic Automakers' Upgrades: Companies like Chery, Geely, and Zeekr are accelerating their intelligent driving capabilities, with plans to mass-produce high-level autonomous driving systems by 2025 [3][19] - Tesla's FSD Progress: Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system has surpassed 2 billion miles, with significant advancements in AI training and computational power. Tesla expects to launch its Robotaxi, Cybercab, by 2026 [4][29] - NVIDIA's Thor Platform: NVIDIA's upgraded Thor platform, with 1000T+ computing power, is expected to be integrated into vehicles by 2025, with companies like Li Auto, XPeng, and BYD already confirmed as early adopters [5][36] Domestic AD/ADAS Market - BYD's AD/ADAS Strategy: BYD's AD team has grown from 100 to 4,000 members, focusing on high-speed NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) and urban NOA for affordable models. BYD plans to offer AD/ADAS features in the 100,000 RMB price range by 2025 [15][16] - Other Domestic Players: Chery aims to mass-produce high-level autonomous driving systems across more than a dozen models by 2025, while Geely and Zeekr are also advancing their NOA systems and integrating NVIDIA's Thor chip [19][23] Overseas AD/ADAS Market - Tesla's FSD Expansion: Tesla's FSD has achieved over 2 billion miles, with AI training computational power increasing by 75% in Q3 2024. Tesla plans to launch FSD in China and Europe by Q1 2025, pending regulatory approval [4][29] - Robotaxi Development: Tesla's Cybercab, a fully autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, is expected to enter production in 2026, with a target of producing 2 million units annually, potentially scaling up to 4 million [29][32] Upstream Chip Market - NVIDIA's Thor Platform: NVIDIA's Thor platform, with 1000T+ computing power, is set to replace the Orin chip, offering 4x the performance. Companies like Desay SV and Horizon Robotics are developing domain controllers based on Thor [36][38] - Domestic Chip Alternatives: Horizon Robotics' Journey 6 series is expected to gain traction, with BYD and Li Auto among the automakers likely to adopt its solutions. Other domestic players like Huawei and Black Sesame are also advancing in the autonomous driving chip market [42][49] Investment Recommendations - AD Smart Penetration: Recommended companies include BYD Electronics, Xiaomi Group, and Horizon Robotics, which are expected to benefit from the downward trend in AD/ADAS pricing [6][53] - Stimulating Smart Upgrades: Companies like Desay SV, Huace Navigation, and Luxshare Precision are recommended for their role in driving intelligent upgrades among automakers [6][53]