LI AUTO(02015) 申万宏源·2024-11-06 17:06Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" to the company, indicating a relative strength compared to the market performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 100.19 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.51 billion yuan, down 25.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - Q3 revenue reached 42.87 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23.6% and a year-on-year increase of 35.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 2.81 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter but a significant increase of 155.2% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - Q3 sales were strong, with total sales of 153,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 45% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 41%. The L6 model contributed significantly, with sales of 75,000 units, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 92%, accounting for 49.2% of total sales [3][4]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 was 21.5%, with the automotive business gross margin at 20.9%, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2 percentage points. The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 270,000 yuan, slightly down by 0.9 thousand yuan [3][4]. - R&D expenses for Q3 were 2.59 billion yuan, with a rate of 6.0%, down 3.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating effective cost control [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company expects Q4 delivery volumes to be between 160,000 and 170,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.4% to 29.0%. Projected revenue for Q4 is between 43.2 billion and 45.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5% to 10.0% [3][4]. - The company has developed and operated 1,000 supercharging stations, leading the industry in the number of self-built high-speed charging stations, which supports the sales of high-end pure electric products [4][5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are revised to 145.98 billion, 194.13 billion, and 215.65 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 7.52 billion, 12.60 billion, and 16.43 billion yuan for the same period [4][5].