上海写字楼市场报告 2024年 Q3

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Shanghai Grade A office market, with expectations of continued downward pressure on rental rates and rising vacancy rates [1][2]. Core Insights - The Shanghai Grade A office market is currently in a downward phase, with both new supply and average rental rates declining. The overall vacancy rate has increased to 21.1%, up by 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter [1][2]. - In Q3 2024, four new projects were completed, adding a total of 190,221 square meters of office space, which is a 50.4% decrease from the previous quarter. The net absorption rate fell to 51,346 square meters due to weak demand and declining transaction volumes [1][2]. - Average rental rates for Grade A offices decreased by 3.2% to RMB 7.27 per square meter per day, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to previous quarters [1][2][8]. - The report anticipates nearly 700,000 square meters of office space to be released in Q4, suggesting that flexible leasing options and negotiation space will be crucial for landlords to manage market absorption [1][2]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand - The market continues to experience weak demand, with a significant reduction in leasing activities. The demand from new leases, renewals, and relocations has decreased [5][6]. - TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), finance, and professional services remain the primary sources of market demand [5][6]. Rental Trends - The average rental rate for Grade A offices has continued to decline, with a 3.2% drop in Q3 2024. The core business district's rental rate has fallen below RMB 10, reaching RMB 9.94 per square meter per day, marking a recent low [8][12]. - Emerging business districts have shown some resilience, with rental rates supported by demand from finance and professional services sectors [8][12]. Investment Market - The investment market for Grade A offices recorded 17 major transactions in Q3 2024, totaling over RMB 7.5 billion. Investment buyers accounted for nearly 40% of the transaction volume, reflecting a significant increase in demand for office property investments [10][11]. - The report highlights that domestic asset price disparities and favorable monetary policies are expected to attract more capital into the domestic investment market [10][11].