宏观专题报告2：美国大选结果：有何影响？

Election Outcome and Policy Implications - Trump is projected to secure at least 270 electoral votes, likely winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election[1] - Republicans are expected to control both the Senate (51 seats) and the House (195 seats), facilitating policy implementation[7] - Key policy areas include manufacturing, infrastructure, tax cuts, trade, immigration, and energy[11] Economic and Fiscal Impact - Trump's proposed tax cuts could increase the U.S. deficit by $5.8 trillion over the next decade, with GDP growth expected to decline by 0.4% by 2034[23] - Higher-income households (95-99%) are projected to see a 3.7% income increase by 2026, while lower-income groups will see smaller gains[23] - Trade policies, including potential 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, may exacerbate U.S. trade deficits and increase consumer costs[25] Market and Asset Implications - U.S. tech stocks may continue to rise due to Trump's support for AI and potential tax cuts, but market volatility could increase[37] - U.S. Treasury yields may rise due to fiscal expansion and inflationary pressures from tariffs and immigration policies[38] - The dollar is expected to remain strong, supported by higher interest rates and fiscal policies[39] - Gold prices may continue to rise due to global monetary system divergence and economic uncertainty[40] Immigration and Labor Market - Immigration has contributed significantly to U.S. population growth, with net immigration reaching 3.3 million in 2023[16] - Trump's stricter immigration policies could reduce labor supply, potentially slowing economic growth and increasing inflation[35]