纯碱日报-宏观降温，纯碱等待驱动

Market Dynamics - The main contract for soda ash opened at 1550 CNY/ton and closed at 1517 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.69%[1] - Trading volume increased by 351,000 contracts to 1.637 million contracts, while open interest rose by 19,000 contracts to 1.238 million contracts[1] Fundamental Analysis - There is a contradiction between strong macro pricing expectations and weak realities of high inventory and production capacity[1] - The demand for soda ash remains rigid, with float glass and photovoltaic daily melting maintaining high levels, although some production cuts have begun[1] - New production capacities from projects like Yuansheng Alkali and Jingshan are contributing to supply surplus, with additional capacities expected to come online by 2025[1] Summary - The market direction is expected to be wide fluctuations[1] - Core logic indicates continuous decline in downstream demand, making future supply surplus difficult to reverse[1] - Risk factors include large-scale cold repairs in float glass production and underperformance of emerging downstream industries[1]