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化工行业行业点评报告：美国大选尘埃落定，化工行业影响几何？
2024-11-07 05:52

Industry Investment Rating - Maintains a "Recommend" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Views - The 2024 US presidential election resulted in a victory for Republican candidate Trump, which is expected to impact the chemical industry [1] - During Trump's previous term, Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between $19.33 and $86.29 per barrel, with an average of $58.44 per barrel [1] - US crude oil production increased from 8.96 million barrels per day to 11 million barrels per day under Republican policies, while sanctions on Iran and Venezuela reduced their production from 3.78 million and 2.01 million barrels per day to 2.10 million and 0.49 million barrels per day, respectively [1] - Republican policies may limit the upside potential of crude oil prices due to increased global trade friction and support for traditional energy, which could increase US crude supply [2] - The chemical industry's profitability is significantly influenced by crude oil prices, with low prices generally benefiting the industry and high prices potentially harming it [3] - In Q3 2024, the average Brent crude price was $78.71 per barrel, a 7.43% decrease quarter-over-quarter, leading to a decline in the gross margins of petrochemical and basic chemical industries to 13.58% and 17.57%, respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on upstream companies with low business exposure and high dividend yields [3] - Consider midstream material suppliers with low export exposure to the US and potential benefits from "export rush" [3] - Pay attention to high-end new material companies advancing domestic substitution through independent technological innovation [3] - Recommended stocks include Sinopec (600028 SH), Guoen Co Ltd (002768 SZ), Sanmei Co Ltd (603379 SH), Juhua Co Ltd (600160 SH), Ruihuatai (688323 SH), and Chenghe Technology (688625 SH) [3] Historical Performance - The chemical industry's performance relative to the CSI 300 index shows significant volatility, with periods of both outperformance and underperformance [3]