特朗普2.0对中国消费行业的影响：短期对市场情绪的打击大于基本面，海外产能与供应链布局决定出海型企业的成败

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese consumer industry, emphasizing the importance of selecting companies with strong fundamentals and earnings certainty [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the impact of Trump's aggressive tariff policies on Chinese consumer companies will primarily affect those producing goods in China for export to the U.S. Companies with established overseas production and supply chains are expected to be less affected [1][2]. - It is noted that the election of Trump may accelerate the trend of domestic substitution in the Chinese consumer market, as U.S. policies could lead to increased inflation and affect consumer confidence in China [1]. - The report suggests that while short-term market sentiment may be under pressure, long-term recovery of consumer confidence will depend on the overall economic outlook in China [1]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's proposed tariffs could raise import duties on products from China to over 60%, significantly impacting exports of consumer goods [1]. - Companies with sufficient overseas production capacity, such as Pop Mart and Shenzhou International, are likely to face limited impact from these tariffs [1]. - The report anticipates that if tariffs are implemented selectively, categories heavily reliant on Chinese imports may experience varying levels of impact [1]. Section 2: Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on companies that can drive revenue growth through international expansion, meet low-tier market demands, offer low valuations with high shareholder returns, and show short-term performance catalysts [2][3]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Pop Mart (9992.HK), Feihe (6186.HK), and Giant Bio (2367.HK) [3]. Section 3: Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the need for consumer companies to innovate and adapt to the evolving demands of low-tier markets, which are experiencing increased consumption awareness and upgrading needs [2]. - It also points out that companies with lower valuations and higher dividend yields can provide better protection against potential stock price declines amid market uncertainties [3].