2024Q3轻工板块财报综述：业绩有望筑底，期待政策成效

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3][9]. Core Insights - The light industry sector's revenue in Q3 2024 decreased by 0.85% year-on-year to 156.34 billion yuan, while the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 26.03% to 7.96 billion yuan [2][9]. - The overall performance is expected to stabilize, with government subsidies anticipated to boost consumer demand and revive the upstream and downstream markets [2][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Light Industry - Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 0.85% year-on-year to 1563.38 billion yuan, while the cumulative revenue for Q1-3 increased by 2.24% to 4453.82 billion yuan [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 dropped by 26.03% to 79.56 billion yuan, with a cumulative decrease of 1.82% for Q1-3 [9][19]. 2. Home Furnishing - Q3 2024 revenue for the home furnishing sector decreased by 0.52% to 635.39 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 2.20% for Q1-3 [21][25]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 fell by 22.59% to 4.649 billion yuan [21][23]. 3. Paper Industry - Q3 2024 revenue in the paper sector decreased by 6.34% to 461.62 billion yuan, with net profit down by 73.95% to 5.18 billion yuan [3][19]. - The report anticipates a potential recovery in profitability in Q4 due to improved demand and stabilization of paper prices [11][19]. 4. Packaging - The packaging sector's revenue increased by 1.64% year-on-year to 319.99 billion yuan, with net profit rising by 8.36% to 20.49 billion yuan [3][19]. - The paper packaging segment benefited from the recovery in consumer electronics, while metal packaging faced pressure from weak downstream demand [10][19]. 5. Cultural and Entertainment Products - Revenue in the cultural and entertainment products sector grew by 12.20% year-on-year to 146.39 billion yuan, although net profit decreased by 15.04% to 7.40 billion yuan [3][19]. - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands in this segment, particularly in online sales channels [10][19]. 6. Export Chain - The export chain maintained a steady revenue growth, with Q3 2024 revenue increasing by 19.65% [3][19]. - However, profits were impacted by high shipping costs and currency fluctuations, leading to a decline in net profit [11][19]. 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector that benefit from government subsidies, such as Mousse, Gujia, and Sophia [3][11]. - It also recommends leading companies in the paper industry and strong performers in the export chain [3][11].