中国银河：每日晨报-20241107

Macro Analysis - The victory of Trump in the 2024 US presidential election indicates potential risks such as increased inflation under deficit expansion, a possible impact on the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the need to address Trump's proposed universal tariffs and trade wars [1][12][7] - The Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts in December if inflation data exceeds expectations, with cumulative rate cuts for 2024 and 2025 potentially reduced from 100 basis points to 75 basis points [1][12] Strategy Impact on A-shares - Trump's election may negatively affect Chinese manufacturing exports and profits due to increased tariffs, which could slow down China's economic growth and adversely impact A-shares [1][18] - The importance of domestic self-sufficiency is expected to rise, with policies supporting high-quality domestic economic development, particularly in the technology sector [1][18] - Dividend assets are suggested for stable returns amid uncertainties, with a focus on stage-specific allocation opportunities [1][18] Fixed Income Market - The domestic bond market is expected to remain under pressure due to weak fundamentals, with the central bank maintaining liquidity under a loose monetary policy [2][27] - The impact of Trump's policies on the bond market is analyzed, indicating potential upward pressure on yields in the short term but a long-term downtrend due to domestic monetary policy [22][24] Technology Sector - The trend of domestic substitution and self-sufficiency is anticipated to be a key theme in China's technology sector, particularly in the semiconductor industry, which is expected to benefit from ongoing domestic development [28][30] - The AI sector is also expected to see significant advancements, with a focus on domestic companies and their ability to innovate and adapt to changing market conditions [28][30] Construction Sector - The construction industry is expected to benefit from increased government investment and infrastructure projects, particularly in state-owned enterprises [34][35] - Recommendations include focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend companies within the construction and infrastructure sectors [34][35]