轨交设备跟踪点评：动车组二次招标略超预期，重视25年产业链机会

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the rail transit equipment sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The recent tender announcement by the National Railway Group for 80 sets of high-speed trains slightly exceeded expectations, reflecting strong demand in the rail transit equipment sector [2]. - The procurement of high-speed trains in 2024 is expected to surpass previous years due to a recovery in passenger traffic, with a year-on-year increase of 49.39% in tendered sets compared to 2023 [3]. - The peak of new rail lines and vehicle deliveries is anticipated in 2025, with a projected increase in new vehicle demand driven by the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The profitability of the National Railway Group has improved significantly, with total revenue reaching 900.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the year [3]. - The rail investment is expected to maintain above 800 billion yuan in 2025, with a focus on vehicle investments that are likely to convert into performance [4]. Summary by Sections Tender Announcement - On November 5, the National Railway Group announced a tender for 80 sets of high-speed trains, including various configurations, which slightly exceeded market expectations [2]. Passenger Traffic and Demand - The railway passenger volume from January to September reached 3.338 billion people, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%, indicating that peak demand is still not fully met [3]. Future Projections - In 2025, the new rail lines are expected to increase by 50%, with a significant demand for new vehicles as the industry approaches the completion of its five-year plan [3]. Financial Performance - The National Railway Group's revenue and profit have shown significant improvement, with a total fixed asset investment of 561.2 billion yuan in the first nine months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [3]. Key Companies to Watch - Key companies in the rail transit equipment sector include CRRC Corporation, Times Electric, Siwei Control, and China Railway Signal & Communication [4].