电力设备及新能源：特朗普胜选！需求承压、产能出海加速推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry, indicating a relative performance within -5% to 10% compared to the benchmark index [13]. Core Insights - The election of Trump is expected to significantly impact the U.S. and global new energy markets, primarily due to a lack of policy support leading to weak demand growth and a shift in supply capacity overseas [9]. - The U.S. solar market is projected to face a decline in demand, with estimates suggesting a potential drop of 46% in the solar market space by 2027 [2]. - The report highlights the strong first-mover advantage of domestic advanced production capacities in the U.S. solar market, despite the Biden administration's support for new energy [3]. - The demand for transformers in the U.S. is robust, driven by manufacturing reshoring, AI technology advancements, and the need for grid updates [8]. - The report suggests that the long-term market potential for lithium batteries remains promising, despite short-term pressures on demand due to potential subsidy cancellations and increased tariffs [7]. Summary by Sections Section: U.S. Political Climate and Energy Policy - The political divide in the U.S. regarding climate policy has led to instability and inconsistency, affecting the development of the new energy industry [2]. - Trump's administration is likely to continue prioritizing traditional fossil fuel industries, which may further suppress the growth of the new energy sector [2]. Section: Solar Energy Market - The cumulative installed capacity growth rate (CARG) for solar energy during Trump's presidency was 21%, lower than previous administrations [2]. - The U.S. solar market is facing high barriers, with tariffs on solar products expected to remain high under Trump's potential administration [3]. Section: Lithium Battery Demand - The U.S. lithium battery demand is closely tied to the electric vehicle market, which has shown signs of slowing growth [7]. - The cost of producing lithium iron phosphate batteries in the U.S. is significantly higher than in China, suggesting that exports will remain a key strategy for Chinese manufacturers [7]. Section: Energy Storage - The energy storage market in the U.S. is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of 508 GWh by 2030 [7]. - The report emphasizes that energy storage remains a viable sector for overseas expansion, with product exports being the primary mode of entry [7]. Section: Transformer and Wind Power Markets - The demand for transformers in the U.S. is expected to remain strong due to various economic factors, despite potential trade barriers [8]. - The report notes that the wind power market in the U.S. faces challenges, particularly in offshore wind development, and suggests that Chinese wind turbine manufacturers should focus on emerging markets instead [8].