国防军工：美国大选点评报告-美大选尘埃落定，军工板块影响几何？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [4]. Core Insights - The victory of Trump in the 2024 presidential election is expected to boost the military trade market, as he advocates for a strong military without engaging in wars, potentially leading to increased demand for military equipment in regions like the Middle East and Europe [1]. - Global military spending is projected to rise rapidly, with the defense industry becoming a necessary investment. Trump's administration previously saw an average annual increase of over 5% in U.S. military budgets, reaching a historical high of $738 billion in the 2020 fiscal year, which accounted for 39.7% of global military expenditure [1]. - The report emphasizes the urgency for domestic development in the aerospace sector, particularly in commercial space, as the U.S. focuses on maintaining its dominance in space exploration and technology [2]. - The ongoing U.S.-China rivalry is highlighted, with an emphasis on the need for industrial chain security, which may lead to increased domestic production and innovation in military-related technologies [2]. - Investment recommendations include selectively increasing positions in companies that are expected to benefit from short-term and long-term industry trends, with specific companies identified for their growth potential [2]. Summary by Sections - Military Trade Market: Trump's "avoid war" stance is likely to enhance military trade opportunities, especially if conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war are resolved, leading to significant demand for military equipment [1]. - Global Military Spending: Anticipated rapid growth in global military budgets, with the defense sector becoming a critical investment area, particularly in light of Trump's previous military spending increases [1]. - Aerospace Sector Development: The need for accelerated development in China's aerospace industry is underscored, driven by competition in the space sector [2]. - U.S.-China Economic Relations: The report discusses the potential for increased restrictions on Chinese access to U.S. technology, emphasizing the importance of self-sufficiency in the military supply chain [2]. - Investment Strategy: The report suggests a strategy of "buying low" and highlights specific companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated industry growth [2].