浦银国际联合解读：如何交易特朗普2.0？

Trade and Economic Impact - Trump's potential increase of tariffs on all Chinese imports to 60% could reduce China's GDP growth by 2.3 percentage points, doubling the impact compared to the 2018-2019 trade war[18] - The average tariff on Chinese exports to the U.S. has risen from 3.8% to over 19.3% since the previous trade war[20] - If tariffs are implemented, the estimated reduction in U.S. imports from China could reach $414.2 billion[20] Market and Investment Strategy - Short-term effects of Trump's election may lead to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a boost in U.S. stock markets[1] - The Chinese government may respond to potential tariffs by allowing the RMB to depreciate and increasing macroeconomic policy support[11] - High-quality dividend stocks and growth stocks in China may be less affected by trade tensions, suggesting a buying opportunity during market corrections[1] Sector-Specific Insights - The internet sector may face increased risks from potential tariffs, impacting cross-border e-commerce expansion[2] - The technology sector could benefit from accelerated domestic demand and a push for self-sufficiency due to U.S. sanctions[2] - The pharmaceutical sector's sentiment may be negatively impacted in the short term, but long-term effects are expected to be limited[3] Risks and Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies could lead to increased volatility in the Chinese financial markets[11] - Potential geopolitical tensions and the effectiveness of China's policy responses remain significant risks[4] - The impact of Trump's policies on U.S.-China relations is unpredictable, with possible outcomes ranging from improved to deteriorated diplomatic ties[25]