LI AUTO(HK:02015) Guolian Securities·2024-11-07 12:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - In October 2024, the company delivered 51,443 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.3%. The projected revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.0%, 39.4%, and 36.3% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion yuan, with growth rates of -27.1%, 67.0%, and 66.6% respectively. The EPS is expected to be 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 yuan per share, with a 3-year CAGR of 40.6% [2][6]. Summary by Sections Delivery Performance - The company achieved a delivery of 51,443 vehicles in October 2024, marking a 27.3% increase year-on-year. Cumulatively, 393,000 vehicles were delivered by the end of October 2024. The company has maintained its position as the leading Chinese brand in the 200,000 yuan and above new energy vehicle segment for seven consecutive months [6][7]. Product and Technology Development - The company has accelerated its software capabilities with the AD Max version, which has been rolled out to all users of the AD Max platform. The penetration rate of the city NOA mileage for testing users has exceeded 50%. The company is expected to maintain high R&D investment, enhancing user satisfaction through superior intelligent features [6][7]. Ecosystem and Infrastructure - As of October 31, 2024, the company has established 475 retail centers across 144 cities and 444 after-sales service centers covering 223 cities. The company has also deployed 1,004 charging stations and 4,910 charging piles nationwide, supporting its smart electric strategy [6][7]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected financials for 2024-2026 include revenues of 147.3 billion, 205.4 billion, and 280 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 8.53 billion, 14.24 billion, and 23.72 billion yuan. The EPS is expected to grow to 4.02, 6.71, and 11.18 yuan per share over the same period [2][6][7].