Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6]. Core Views - The company, Shandong Hongqiao, reported a net profit of 15.754 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 141.43%. The company continues to build an integrated upstream and downstream industrial chain while actively integrating overseas bauxite resources [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 19.59 billion, 21.27 billion, and 22.59 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 70.93%, 8.58%, and 6.22%, respectively. The corresponding EPS for these years is projected to be 2.07, 2.24, and 2.38 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to P/E ratios of 7.02, 6.47, and 6.09 times [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, Shandong Hongqiao achieved operating revenue of 110.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.47%, and a net profit of 15.754 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141.43% [6][9]. - The average price of electrolytic aluminum increased by 5.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, while the average price in Q3 increased by 3.9% year-on-year but decreased by 4.6% quarter-on-quarter. The prices of prebaked anodes and coal decreased by 22.9% and 10.6% year-on-year, respectively, in the first three quarters of 2024 [6][9]. - The theoretical profit of alumina in Q3 2024 was approximately 1,069 yuan/ton, an increase of 886 yuan/ton year-on-year and 188 yuan/ton quarter-on-quarter. The company has a total annual alumina production capacity of 19.5 million tons as of H1 2024 [6][9]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have operating revenues of 132.79 billion, 133.16 billion, and 135.58 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -0.62%, +0.28%, and +1.82%, respectively. The expected EBITDA for these years is 37.147 billion, 38.880 billion, and 40.769 billion yuan [6][9]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to be 19.59 billion, 21.27 billion, and 22.59 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.02, 6.47, and 6.09 times [6][9].
中国宏桥：铝产业链一体化优势凸显，盈利弹性持续释放