电气设备行业专题研究：光伏铜浆创新突破，利润空间弹性巨大

Industry Investment Rating - Stronger than the market (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report highlights the potential of copper paste as a cost-effective alternative to silver paste in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, with significant profit margins expected due to cost reductions of 20%-60% [4] - The adoption of copper paste is seen as a major trend in the metalization process, driven by the need to reduce costs amid declining silver prices and rising silver consumption [5] - The report recommends focusing on leading material companies such as Polyrocks Materials, Deke Corporation, and Suzhou Good-Ark due to their potential in the copper paste market [43] Summary by Sections Metalization Cost Reduction and Copper Paste Solution - Metalization cost reduction is urgent due to the rising cost of silver paste, which currently accounts for 31.97% of total battery production costs, slightly lower than silicon wafers at 44.22% [13] - Two main directions for cost reduction: 1) Process improvements to reduce silver paste usage (e.g., multi-busbar, busbar-free technologies), and 2) Substituting silver with cheaper conductive metals like copper [15] - Copper paste is considered the ideal solution for TOPCon metalization cost reduction, as it addresses issues like copper oxidation and sintering diffusion [22] Potential Application of Copper Paste in PV - A proposed application involves a double-layer structure using silver seed layers/points combined with copper paste, which reduces silver consumption to 2mg/w while maintaining battery conversion efficiency [3] - The double-layer structure uses silver paste for the seed layer/points to ensure good interface properties, while copper paste is applied above the silver layer for current collection and transmission [25] - Simulation results show that using double-sided silver seed points with copper paste can reduce energy loss by only 0.01mW/cm² compared to the baseline [30] Copper Paste Processing Fees and Profit Impact - Copper paste application can reduce costs by 20%-60%, with a median reduction of 40%, leading to a metalization cost of 4.2-4.8 cents/w [4] - The processing fee for copper paste is estimated at 3.9-4.4 cents/w, with a profit margin of 3.2-3.6 cents/w, significantly higher than silver paste [35] - Under baseline assumptions, the copper paste processing fee market is projected to reach 16.8 billion yuan by 2026, with leading companies potentially generating profits of 3.19-3.59 billion yuan [40] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Polyrocks Materials as a key player in the copper paste market, with a projected EPS of 3.78 yuan by 2026 and a "Hold" rating [44] - Deke Corporation and Suzhou Good-Ark are also highlighted as companies to watch, though they currently lack specific ratings [44]