Daqo Energy(688303) 东方财富·2024-11-08 01:23Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [3][5] Core Views - The company's Q3 net loss narrowed by 572 million yuan compared to Q2, signaling a bottom in profitability [1] - With silicon material prices rebounding since August, the company's gross margin is expected to continue improving [1] - The company maintains a healthy financial position with no interest-bearing debt and ample cash reserves of 14.49 billion yuan [2] Business Performance - Q3 revenue was 1.421 billion yuan, down 60.01% YoY, with a net loss of 429 million yuan, a 162.27% YoY decrease but a 572 million yuan improvement from Q2 [1] - Q3 gross margin turned positive at 9.2%, up from -23.6% in Q2 [1] - Polysilicon production in Q3 was 43,600 tons (75.1% N-type), with sales of 42,100 tons (79.4% N-type) and a production-to-sales ratio of 96.6%, up 30.3 percentage points QoQ [1] - Unit cost increased 6.3% QoQ to 48.83 yuan/kg due to higher fixed costs from reduced production, while cash cost decreased 3.1% to 38.93 yuan/kg due to improved production efficiency [1] Financial Position - The company has no interest-bearing debt and holds 14.49 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, including 10.31 billion yuan in structured deposits and time deposits [2] - Total assets stood at 47.77 billion yuan as of Q3 2024, with current assets of 16.35 billion yuan and non-current assets of 31.42 billion yuan [7][8] Industry Outlook - New capacity additions in the silicon material industry have significantly slowed, with many companies maintaining low operating rates to adapt to market changes [2] - Profitability differences among companies are becoming more pronounced, with silicon material prices still in an L-shaped bottoming phase [2] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 7.4/15.1/16.8 billion yuan, with net profit of -1.4/1.5/2.3 billion yuan [5] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026 is -0.67/0.71/1.09 yuan per share, with P/E ratios of -/44/29x [5] - EBITDA forecast for 2024-2026 is 875/5,018/6,303 million yuan [5]