11月美联储会议点评：如期降息，短期内货币政策不受大选影响

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected during the November meeting[1] - The statement removed confidence in inflation reaching 2%, indicating a potential pause in rate cuts[1] - The labor market assessment was updated to reflect a general easing, suggesting a cautious approach to further rate cuts[1] Group 2: Economic Data and Projections - The unemployment rate rose from 4.051% in September to 4.145% in October, indicating a weakening labor market[2] - The Federal Reserve maintains a 25 basis point rate cut prediction for December, with a 30% chance of pausing[1] - Powell emphasized that the primary goals remain full employment and price stability despite recent economic data showing a 2.8% GDP growth rate in Q3[1] Group 3: Political and Policy Considerations - Trump's election is not expected to impact the December rate decision but may influence future decisions starting in 2025[2] - Potential inflationary pressures from Trump's fiscal, tariff, and immigration policies could affect the Fed's rate decisions in the coming years[3] - The Fed's independence is highlighted, with Powell stating that they will not speculate on fiscal policy impacts[1]