美国大选对我国家电行业影响点评：加快龙头全球化步伐，关注“抢出口”潜在机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the home appliance industry [5]. Core Insights - The U.S. presidential election results indicate that Trump is likely to impose higher tariffs on Chinese exports, which could negatively impact China's home appliance exports. However, domestic consumption policies are expected to strengthen the support for internal sales [2][3]. - In the short term, investment sentiment in export-oriented companies may be affected, but the domestic market for essential goods is anticipated to have valuation recovery potential [2]. - The report highlights that the U.S. remains a significant market for Chinese white goods, with exports reaching $11.444 billion in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, although the growth rate is lower than the overall export growth of 13.4% [2][3]. - The report suggests that the trade policies may accelerate the globalization of leading home appliance companies, with an increase in cross-border mergers and acquisitions expected [3]. Summary by Sections Short-term Outlook - Trump's potential re-election could lead to increased tariffs on Chinese exports, impacting the export chain investment sentiment. However, domestic consumption policies may provide a buffer [2]. Medium-term Outlook - The report anticipates a "rush to export" phenomenon following the implementation of tariff policies, as U.S. demand for home appliances is recovering, despite local production capacity being insufficient [2][3]. Long-term Outlook - The trade tensions are expected to drive leading companies to enhance their global presence, with a focus on regions with geopolitical advantages and tariff benefits [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on two main lines: benefiting from domestic consumption policies are Midea Group and Gree Electric Appliances, while Haier Smart Home and Hisense Home Appliances are expected to benefit from pre-tariff export opportunities [3].