宏观月报–2024年10月：美国大选牵动市场，国内政策蓄势待发

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points before year-end, influenced by the US election outcome and recent strong employment and inflation data[1][2] - Under a Harris administration, the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields are projected to decline to 3.9% and 4.0% respectively by year-end[1][2] - If Trump is elected, the upward pressure on yields may persist due to inflationary policies, limiting the downward movement of the yield curve[1][2] Group 2: China Economic Policy - The Chinese government is anticipated to announce fiscal plans in November, increasing borrowing by approximately RMB 1-2 trillion to alleviate spending constraints and local debt pressure[1][2] - Successful implementation of fiscal support could boost Q4 GDP growth by about 1 percentage point, aiding in achieving the annual growth target of 5%[1][2] - Recent data indicates a slight improvement in China's economic momentum, although domestic demand remains weak[1][2] Group 3: Currency and Market Trends - The US dollar is expected to maintain strength in the near term, with the RMB facing limited downward pressure due to election uncertainties and US economic strength[1][2] - The RMB/USD exchange rate is projected to recover to around 6.8 by year-end as the dollar weakens following Fed rate cuts[1][2] - Emerging markets have seen significant capital inflows, but recent dollar strength has led to a net outflow of approximately $16 billion in October[1][2]