【NIFD季报】持续发挥“扩张性”财政政策作用，改善财政收支状况——2024Q3中国财政运行

Investment Rating - The report indicates a slightly improved pattern in the general public budget's revenue and expenditure, suggesting a cautious optimism in fiscal management [2][4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a proactive "expansionary" fiscal policy to address insufficient domestic demand and improve fiscal revenue [2][59]. - It highlights the increasing pressure on government fund revenues, with a significant decline in land transfer income impacting local government finances [9][10]. - The report notes that the fiscal deficit as a percentage of nominal GDP has risen, indicating a growing fiscal challenge [15][19]. Summary by Sections General Public Budget - In Q3 2024, the general public budget revenue was 47,146 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, with the decline narrowing by 2.4 percentage points compared to Q2 [4]. - The general public budget expenditure increased by 1.9% year-on-year to 65,208 billion yuan, with a slight acceleration in growth [4][5]. - The fiscal deficit for the general public budget reached 18,062 billion yuan, up 9.5% year-on-year [4]. Government Fund Revenue - The report indicates a significant decline in government fund revenues, with a total of 10,946 billion yuan in Q3, down 27.9% year-on-year [9]. - Local government fund revenues fell by 30.4%, primarily due to a 34.2% drop in land transfer income [9][10]. Fiscal Deficit and Debt Issuance - The report states that the fiscal deficit for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 38,720 billion yuan, with a combined deficit of 68,307 billion yuan for both public and government funds [15]. - The issuance of special bonds by local governments increased significantly in Q3, with a total of 32,093 billion yuan issued [20]. Domestic Demand and Economic Growth - Insufficient domestic demand is identified as a major contradiction in the current macroeconomic environment, with retail sales growth slowing to 3.3% year-on-year [32]. - The unemployment rate showed a slight decline, averaging 5.1% in the first three quarters, but structural employment issues remain prominent [38]. Monetary and Credit Conditions - The report highlights a tightening monetary supply, with M1 showing a negative growth of 7.4% and social financing down by 12% [43][44]. - The overall credit demand is weak, reflecting a challenging financial environment for both businesses and consumers [43]. Policy Recommendations - The report advocates for an expansionary fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand and mitigate debt risks, emphasizing the importance of fiscal reforms [59][60].