轻工出口及二轮车收入高增，细分子板块分化明显

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the paper and light industry sector, but it provides insights into potential investment opportunities and strategies for various sub-sectors [2][29]. Core Insights - The total market capitalization of the paper and light industry accounts for 0.88% of the total A-share market capitalization, with a total market value of 807.545 billion yuan as of November 1, 2024 [7][4]. - The industry faced short-term pressure in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 1% and a net profit drop of 28%. However, the first three quarters of 2024 showed a 2% revenue increase and a 4% decline in net profit [8][12]. - The report highlights significant differentiation among sub-sectors, with the light industry exports and two-wheeler segments showing high growth [8][11]. Summary by Sub-sectors 1. Paper Sector - Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 4% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 76%. For the first three quarters, revenue increased by 1% and net profit rose by 37% [8][18]. 2. Packaging and Printing Sector - Q3 2024 revenue grew by 1% year-on-year, while net profit fell by 10%. For the first three quarters, revenue remained flat with a 1% increase, and net profit decreased by 15% [8][18]. 3. Furniture and Home Sector - Q3 2024 revenue dropped by 15% year-on-year, with a net profit decline of 26%. For the first three quarters, revenue decreased by 8% and net profit fell by 17% [9][18]. 4. Light Industry Exports - Q3 2024 revenue increased by 26% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 19%. For the first three quarters, revenue also grew by 26%, while net profit declined by 9% [11][18]. 5. Two-wheeler Sector - Q3 2024 revenue rose by 15% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 22%. For the first three quarters, revenue grew by 16% and net profit by 29% [11][18]. 6. Personal Care and Others - Q3 2024 revenue remained flat year-on-year, while net profit fell by 38%. For the first three quarters, revenue increased by 2%, but net profit decreased by 20% [11][18]. Investment Strategies - The report suggests that the paper sector may see improved domestic demand and potential recovery in pulp and paper prices, particularly favoring companies with high integration like Sun Paper [29]. - For the packaging and printing sector, a gradual recovery in exports and domestic demand is expected to support revenue and profit growth [29]. - In the furniture and home sector, despite external pressures, policies supporting upgrades may lead to performance recovery for leading companies [30]. - The light industry export sector is expected to benefit from competitive advantages gained by leading companies through cost control and capacity transfer [31]. - The two-wheeler sector is anticipated to benefit from favorable policies and standards, with a focus on leading companies like Aima Technology and Yadea Holdings [32]. - The personal care sector is expected to maintain stable growth due to strong consumer demand and effective channel expansion by leading companies [32].