不锈钢日报-联储议息决议在即,降息预期中盘面以反映宏观为主
Hua Rong Rong Da Qi Huo·2024-11-08 04:33

Market Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 192 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation on November 7, with a bid rate of 1.50%, maintaining the previous level[3] - The total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets reached 982,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.91%[3] - The trading volume of SS2412 on November 7 was 99,140 lots, down by 27,500 lots, with an open interest of 76,948 lots, down by 4,280 lots[3] Cost and Supply-Demand Analysis - The production cost of cold-rolled stainless steel is approximately 13,800 yuan/ton, with current spot costs showing a slight inversion[3] - The demand side remains stable, but steel mills continue to maintain high production levels, leading to a relaxed supply-demand situation[4] - High nickel iron prices are under pressure, with factory quotes as low as 1,030 yuan/nickel, and high chromium prices trending towards 8,000 yuan[3] Trading Logic and Recommendations - The bearish sentiment is driven by sustained high production from steel mills and a lack of significant improvement in demand, alongside increasing delivery warehouse receipts[4] - The core logic suggests a "high output + high inventory + neutral demand" state for stainless steel, with expectations of declining costs due to pressure on raw material prices[4] - Short-term trading strategies should consider macroeconomic benefits, with SS2412 contracts recommended in the range of 13,200-13,800 yuan and 2501 contracts in the range of 13,400-13,850 yuan[4]