红枣日报-宏观预期回暖 盘面震荡收涨

Market Dynamics - The market in Cangzhou received over 30 trucks of goods, with acceptable spot transactions and slight price adjustments[2] - In Aksu and Alar, a small amount of jujubes has been harvested, but large-scale purchases have not yet occurred, with prices around 6-6.8 CNY/kg for Aksu and 7 CNY/kg for Alar[2] - The jujube market is experiencing fluctuations as it awaits guidance on centralized purchase prices, with a generally positive macro sentiment[2] Fundamental Analysis - The new season's jujube production is expected to increase, indicating a recovery in supply[3] - The seasonal peak is approaching, leading to faster movement of goods downstream[3] - Farmers are holding firm on prices as the new season jujubes are harvested in small quantities[3] Technical Analysis - The main jujube futures contract (CJ2501) reached a high of 10,425 CNY/ton and a low of 10,230 CNY/ton, closing at 10,385 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton from the previous settlement[4] - The trading volume was 101,985 contracts, with an open interest of 97,310 contracts, indicating active market participation[4] - The MACD indicator shows a bullish trend with increasing momentum above the zero axis[4] Summary and Recommendations - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations; downstream clients are advised to purchase based on needs, while upstream clients should focus on raw material procurement[5] - Key logic includes the onset of the autumn-winter peak season and a recovery in production levels[5] - Risk factors include monitoring purchasing policies in production areas[5]