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2024Q3社服零售财报综述：出入境、人服为亮点，关注高质量龙头
Guolian Securities·2024-11-08 08:10

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The retail sales growth in the social service sector continues to show weakness, with cumulative growth rates for social retail, catering, and commodity retail sales declining to 3.3%, 6.2%, and 3.0% respectively by September 2024 [4][10]. - Despite the overall consumption slowdown, companies with competitive advantages are expected to sustain their performance better than in the past, with a focus on high-quality leading companies such as Huazhu Group, Miniso, Beijing Human Resources, and Tuhu [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview: Weak Consumption, Awaiting Turning Point - Social service retail and catering consumption continue to weaken, with cumulative growth rates dropping from 3.7% and 7.9% in June to 3.3% and 6.2% by September [10]. - The performance of limited-scale catering and commodity retail has lagged behind the overall industry growth, with growth rates of 3.6% and 2.2% respectively for the first nine months of 2024 [10]. 2. Performance: Operational Pressure, Steady Leaders - Cross-border e-commerce shows high revenue growth but weakened profit margins due to increased shipping costs and competition, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) rising by 126.61% year-on-year [5][26]. - The tourism sector remains a bright spot, with outbound travel increasing by 30.1% year-on-year in Q3 2024, although domestic scenic areas have seen a decline in revenue growth [5][10]. - The human resources service sector demonstrates resilience, with major companies reporting stable revenue growth and positive net profit growth despite overall operational pressures in the retail service industry [5][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Leading Companies - The report suggests focusing on high-quality leading companies such as Huazhu Group, Miniso, Beijing Human Resources, and Tuhu, as the sector faces pressure but shows potential for improvement in expectations [4][5].