Zijin Mining(601899) 国联证券·2024-11-08 08:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining (601899) [3] Core Views - Zijin Mining is a global mining giant with world-class resources and production capacity, which will help the company achieve rapid production growth [2] - The acquisition of the La Arena gold and copper mine in Peru will further enhance the company's gold and copper resource reserves [5] - The La Arena project is expected to significantly contribute to Zijin Mining's 2028 production targets [5] - The company's net profit is forecasted to be 32.265 billion yuan, 38.451 billion yuan, and 45.119 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with EPS of 1.21 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.70 yuan respectively [2][5] Acquisition Details - Zijin Mining's subsidiary, Jin Shan (Singapore) Mining, plans to acquire 100% equity in the La Arena gold mine and its Phase II project from Pan American Silver Corp for 50 million and a 1.5% royalty on net smelter returns from gold production [5][9] - The La Arena project has a total asset value of 165 million and a net profit of $10 million in 2023 [10] - The Phase II project has proven and controlled resources of 740 million tons, containing approximately 175.3 tons of gold and 2.627 million tons of copper [5][17] Production and Development - The La Arena Phase I project, operational since 2011, produces approximately 3 tons of gold annually, with a remaining service life of 3 years [20] - The Phase II project, still in the research phase, is expected to produce 100,000 tons of copper and 3.8 tons of gold annually once operational [20] - The project is located in a world-renowned metallogenic belt, with significant potential for further resource discovery [17] Financial Projections - Zijin Mining's revenue is expected to grow from 270.329 billion yuan in 2022 to 378.865 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.91% from 2024 to 2026 [6] - The company's EBITDA is projected to increase from 42.026 billion yuan in 2022 to 85.052 billion yuan in 2026 [6] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 14.3x in 2024 to 10.2x in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [6] Industry and Market Position - Zijin Mining operates in the non-ferrous metals/industrial metals sector and is positioned as a global leader with significant resource and production capabilities [3][5] - The company's strategic acquisitions and development projects are expected to strengthen its market position and resource base [5][17]