Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating relative to the market for the real estate sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continuous deepening and improvement of storage policies, which are expected to assist in destocking the real estate market. The central and local governments have accelerated the promotion of storage policies for existing housing, including the establishment of a 300 billion yuan special loan for affordable housing [4][9]. - The report highlights the unique progress of the Zhengzhou model, which has successfully stored 106,000 units of affordable housing with a total transaction amount of 33.8 billion yuan, benefiting from strong local government support and favorable financing conditions [4][12]. - The report notes that the national storage efforts face constraints, particularly regarding the need to improve project yield levels, as the average rental yield is currently at 2.25%, which does not cover the costs associated with storage [4][20]. - Future storage measures are expected to focus on improving investment return levels, including extending the assessment period for storage funds and expanding the range of storage projects [4][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Continuous Improvement of Storage Policies - The central government has initiated comprehensive policies for the acquisition of existing housing for affordable rental purposes, with a focus on destocking [9][10]. - Local governments are actively responding with specific implementation details, supporting state-owned enterprises in acquiring unsold properties for affordable housing [15][17]. 2. Zhengzhou Model - Zhengzhou has made significant progress in storage, establishing a dedicated company for this purpose and achieving notable results in affordable housing acquisition [12][14]. - The financial calculations for Zhengzhou's affordable rental housing projects indicate a target of "break-even" profitability, supported by government subsidies [12][16]. 3. National Storage Constraints - The report identifies clear funding sources for storage, including a 300 billion yuan special loan from the central bank and local government special bonds [20][21]. - The current average rental yield in major cities is insufficient to cover the costs of storage, leading to reluctance among developers to sell assets at discounted prices [20][22]. 4. Focus on Improving Investment Returns - The report suggests that future policies should aim to enhance investment returns, including measures such as extending the assessment period for storage funds and considering asset appreciation in revenue calculations [22][24]. - The financial gap in affordable rental housing projects indicates a need for improved rental yields or government subsidies to achieve profitability [22][24]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are likely to benefit from market stabilization, particularly those with strong land acquisition capabilities in first-tier and core second-tier cities [4][24].
房地产行业深度研究:关注收益水平提升,期待收储落地提速
Guolian Securities·2024-11-08 12:09