2024Q3国防军工板块业绩及基金持仓报告：营收利润双承压，“十四五”末待花开

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the defense and military industry [4] Core Views - The defense and military industry is under pressure in terms of both revenue and profits, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced economies of scale [1] - The industry is expected to see a reversal in Q4, with high growth prospects for 2025, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and increased orders [23] - Short-term catalysts include the Zhuhai Airshow and geopolitical changes, while long-term growth is supported by military modernization and state-owned enterprise reforms [2] Performance Analysis Revenue and Profit - In the first three quarters of 2024, the defense and military sector's revenue was 387.466 billion yuan, down 6.45% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.696 billion yuan, down 33.52% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 124.563 billion yuan, down 7.73% YoY, and net profit was 5.141 billion yuan, down 47.05% YoY [17] - The decline in net profit is attributed to falling gross margins and rising expense ratios, with gross margins dropping to 19.94% in Q3 2024, down 2.01 percentage points YoY [17] Balance Sheet - Total assets in Q3 2024 were 1.32718 trillion yuan, up 8.35% from the beginning of the year, while total liabilities were 606.707 billion yuan, up 8.20% [26] - Accounts receivable increased by 14.17% to 315.389 billion yuan, while inventory rose by 10.03% to 271.046 billion yuan [26] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was -45.043 billion yuan, while investment cash flow was -15.591 billion yuan [37] Sub-Sector Performance Host Manufacturers - Revenue for host manufacturers in the first three quarters of 2024 was 110.85 billion yuan, down 8.8% YoY, with net profit down 26.73% YoY [41] - Q3 2024 revenue was 33.7 billion yuan, down 11.3% YoY, and net profit was 670 million yuan, down 63.9% YoY [41] Military Informatization - Revenue for the military informatization sector in the first three quarters of 2024 was 89.788 billion yuan, down 17.8% YoY, with net profit down 46.2% YoY [48] - Q3 2024 revenue was 27.398 billion yuan, down 19.5% YoY, and net profit was 1.418 billion yuan, down 51.4% YoY [48] Military New Materials - Revenue for the military new materials sector in the first three quarters of 2024 was 36.428 billion yuan, up 0.6% YoY, but net profit fell 11.9% YoY [52] - Q3 2024 revenue was 12.365 billion yuan, up 1.4% YoY, while net profit was 1.585 billion yuan, down 12.7% YoY [52] Military Components - Revenue for the military components sector in the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.682 billion yuan, down 17.8% YoY, with net profit down 34.3% YoY [56] - Q3 2024 revenue was 10.42 billion yuan, down 16.8% YoY, and net profit was 1.571 billion yuan, down 36.8% YoY [56] Fund Holdings - Active mutual funds' holdings in the defense and military sector reached 3.52% in Q3 2024, up 0.07 percentage points QoQ [66] - The concentration of fund holdings (CR10) in the sector was 61.58%, up 2.36 percentage points QoQ [69] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with short-term positive changes and long-term growth potential, such as AVIC Shenyang, Sichuan Jiuzhou, and China Satcom [2] - State-owned enterprise reform beneficiaries, including AVIC Materials and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, are also recommended [2]