Group 1: Employment Data Overview - In October, the U.S. added only 12,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 113,000[2] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, matching market expectations, while the labor participation rate slightly decreased to 62.6%[2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 4.0% year-on-year, consistent with market forecasts[2] Group 2: Impact of External Factors - The "Hurricane Helen" impacted service sector employment, contributing to a drop in private sector service jobs to only 9,000 added in October, down from 169,000 in September[2] - Boeing's strike led to a reduction of 37,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, with all losses occurring in durable goods manufacturing[2] Group 3: Labor Market Trends - The initial claims for unemployment benefits rose to 260,000 due to the hurricane but fell back to 216,000 by the end of October, indicating a return to normalcy[3] - The labor market is transitioning towards a "normalization" phase, with the unemployment rate expected to have slight upward movement[4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term disruptions, the labor supply remains constrained, and demand is resilient, suggesting that the unemployment rate will not see significant increases[5] - The labor participation rate for the prime working age group (25-54 years) is expected to continue declining, with illegal immigration numbers also decreasing significantly[5] Group 5: Market Reactions - The market reacted mildly to the employment data, with an 84% probability of a rate cut in November and an expected total cut of approximately 37.7 basis points by year-end[8] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4 basis points to 4.21% and the 10-year yield rising by 10 basis points to 4.36%[8]
美国非农就业数据点评（2024年10月）：“软着陆”仍是基准情形
Zhao Shang Yin Hang·2024-11-08 12:22