11月FOMC会议点评：25BP降息背后的不确定性

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point (BP) rate cut, bringing the target rate to 4.50%-4.75%[1] - The decision was unanimous among the participants, with a 12-0 vote[7] - Future rate cuts will depend on inflation and employment data, particularly in light of uncertainties from the Trump administration[8] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's focus has shifted from inflation to the labor market, indicating a more cautious approach to future rate cuts[9] - The cumulative rate cut forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been reduced from 100 BP to 75 BP[9] - There is a low probability of rate hikes in 2025, as the Fed aims to observe the impact of Trump's policies on the economy[9] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets rose, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.33%[11] - The U.S. dollar index decreased to 104.35, and gold prices increased to $2,707 per ounce[11] - The market anticipates a 25 BP rate cut in December, but a pause in cuts is also possible depending on economic data[11] Group 4: Treasury Issuance Plans - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue approximately $546 billion in privately-held marketable debt in Q4 2024, slightly lower than previous forecasts[14] - The net supply of medium to long-term debt remains stable, alleviating concerns about sudden increases in long-term debt supply post-election[14] - Short-term debt issuance is expected to increase to $3.74 trillion in Q1 2025 due to fiscal needs[18]